Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
