Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
